Year II · No. 665 · 1,823 entries Tuesday, October 27, 2026 ES EN Get the weekly digest

Thesis Almanac

Method and limitations

How this index was made

The index gathers 1,823 free entries published between Jan 2, 2025 and Oct 27, 2026: Substack articles, fund letters, short-seller reports, blogs, institutional notes, X posts and shareholder letters. Every entry links to its original publication; only the title, subtitle and classification data are stored here.

What counts as an entry

One row per article, thesis, letter or report. To be included it must cover a specific stock with a signal of analysis (earnings, quarter, thesis, valuation, deep dive…). Macro, crypto, bonds, generic lists and weekly round-ups without a thesis are excluded.

Sources

  • Substack: publications found through the Finance and Business categories, the recommendation graph (two levels out from Spanish-language publications) and searches for Substacks in Spanish, Europe, Australia and Latin America; public posts only.
  • Short reports: Grizzly, Kerrisdale, Blue Orca, Spruce Point, Muddy Waters, Morpheus, Bleecker Street and Viceroy, from their public pages.
  • Funds: public letters from managers such as azValor, Cobas, Magallanes, Horos, Valentum, FPA, Smead, Wedgewood, Hyperion, Alluvial, Distillate and Forager. One row per letter.
  • Blogs: ValueWalk, Forbes España, Academia de Inversión, Invertir Joven, Value School, La Carta de la Bolsa, Bolsamanía, Medium and Reddit.
  • Institutional: public notes from eToro. Companies: Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letters.
  • X: a small sample of posts with a cashtag and a thesis signal.

Stance and short theses

Stance (bullish, bearish or no stance) comes from a weighted lexicon applied to the title and text. Short-seller reports count as bearish unless they declare a long position. Only 375 of the 1,823 entries state a clear stance; the rest are shown as no stance, which does not mean the author is neutral. A short thesis is a thesis-style text under 1,500 words, or an X post.

Return since publication

For each thesis and each ticker it mentions, we take the closing price on the publication date (or the next trading day if there was no session) and compare it with the latest close: return = Ptoday / Ppub − 1. We do the same with the benchmark over the same dates, and alpha is the difference in percentage points. Short theses have the sign inverted: the thesis wins if the stock falls, and its alpha is the benchmark return minus the stock return. Theses with no stance show the return for reference but do not count in the leaderboard or hit rate. The 1, 3 and 6-month horizons are 21, 63 and 126 trading sessions of the stock itself; until they have passed, "—" is shown. If a thesis mentions several tickers, each is calculated separately and the leaderboard uses the average.

The benchmark depends on where the stock trades: the local index if its exchange is in the map (IBEX 35 for Madrid, DAX for Frankfurt, CAC 40 for Paris, FTSE 100 for London, S&P/ASX 200 for Australia, Ibovespa for São Paulo…); if it trades in the US in dollars, the S&P 500, except Latin American stocks (MSCI EM Latin America, via the ILF ETF) and those from the rest of the world (MSCI ACWI). That keeps the stock and its benchmark in the same currency: there is no currency conversion and each figure shows its currency. Price-only, excluding dividends, with split-adjusted prices. If a stock stops trading (delisting, takeover), its last close is used and the date is shown; if the symbol cannot be found, it shows "No data". Prices are updated every trading night from free sources and may be delayed or inaccurate.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Price-only, excluding dividends, in local currency. Data may be delayed or inaccurate. Not investment advice.

Limitations

Classification is rule-based, without a full manual review. There are false positives (entries that only mention a company in passing, name clashes in fund letters) and false negatives. Coverage is partial: Substack has no public search, so only what is reachable through categories and recommendations is here. Spanish is still a minority (266 entries), and to avoid leaving it out a single financial term is required instead of two, so those entries are noisier. Value Investors Club, Hindenburg (closed in January 2025), Rankia and the PDF letters of some managers could not be included. Dates are in UTC.

10BaggerPortfolio

Free 10BaggerPortfolio posts since 2025 are always included. In the interface and in emails they are treated like any other source: no badges, filters or highlights. The rest of its archive is paid and does not appear.